The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System
Since autumn of 2019, I’ve been bearish on the dollar, meaning I have a longish-term outlook towards a weaker dollar.
This view began forming when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in summer 2019, and then the view solidified with a catalyst after an overnight repo rate spike in September 2019 forced the Fed to begin supplying repo liquidity.
In my October 2, 2019 article, “The Most Crowded Trade“, I said to look for a weaker dollar in 2020, and also stated that the Fed would likely start expanding its balance sheet by buying Treasuries in 2020 or perhaps as early as that quarter in 2019 due to oversupply.
Days later, the Fed indeed announced that they will begin buying Treasuries, and as of this writing well over a year later, they haven’t stopped.
Here’s the dollar index since my October article, having fallen from about 99 to 92:
Going forward over the next 3–5 years, I still expect many currencies including the dollar to continue to devalue vs hard assets, and for the dollar to probably be among the weaker major currencies during that timeframe (with occasional counter-rallies against that trend, as is natural).
Source: Lyn Alden